In an installment different than my usual prose, a bid to incorporate more and more of the work I do, into this blog — from macro and positioning strategy, to individual equity models, here is what I call my “all encompassing comp sheet”.
There’s a lot more to a business than just EV/DACF multiple, or free cashflow yields — as we’ve certainly seen over the past year.
Usually though, we talk about “cheap” oil stocks, and often ignore literally everything about the rest of the business. For example — people like Pine Cliff because it pays a high dividend, and had cash on the balance sheet. Hell, I like Pine Cliff at the right price for AECO torque — but other metrics, like reserve life and ARO (which you could argue is understated) post serious concerns — of course that’s nothing you’re going to find in a comp sheet that focuses on EV/DACF, dividend yield, etc.
These are most of the outputs, from my models, that I use to tell stories, and evaluate companies, below is a guide that includes all the factors included. The goal of this exercise is to build something that can be referenced when one has an idea (wether it’s strong margins, or long reserve life, or maybe just the highest breakeven for torque), and, I consider it more of a guide than, say, a weekly comp sheet produced by a bank.
Performance Overview
Production Overview
The remaining 13 pages are for paid and institutional subscribers. Should you wish to subscribe, please take advantage of the offer below.